| Title | Estimating agrarian income evolution in horticultural farms |
|---|---|
| Authors | GARCÍA ALONSO, CARLOS, Pérez-Naranjo L.M. |
| External publication | No |
| Means | Acta Hortic. |
| Scope | Conference Paper |
| Nature | Científica |
| SJR Quartile | 3 |
| SJR Impact | 0.271 |
| Web | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84855366314&doi=10.17660%2fActaHortic.2008.802.59&partnerID=40&md5=12899ce451940badaacc2b0eddeebad4 |
| Publication date | 01/01/2008 |
| ISI | 000305212500059 |
| Scopus Id | 2-s2.0-84855366314 |
| DOI | 10.17660/ActaHortic.2008.802.59 |
| Abstract | This paper describes a hybrid method to simulate the evolution of agrarian income (estimated by farm net margin) on a medium-long term basis. The model integrates Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) and a multi-level fuzzy inference engine. MCS is a well-known forecasting method but ignores the existence of real dependence relationships among covariates. When dependence relationships cannot be algebraically formulated but can be described as rules using expert knowledge, a fuzzy inference engine can interpret them guiding the MCS model. The financial structure of horticultural farms (agrarian year 2000, surveyed in 2003:348 farms) in Andalusia (southern region in Spain) was used to verify the hybrid model. Farm net margin was forecasted from 2001 to 2013 and the results were evaluated using a cross-validation procedure. Future environmental and market impacts can also be evaluated and this makes our model an interesting proposal as a complementary tool for decision making in the context of agricultural policy. |
| Keywords | Agrarian income; Fuzzy inference; Horticultural farms; Monte Carlo simulation |
| Universidad Loyola members |